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Thursday, 21 February 2013

My thoughts on the Oscars 2013......

Ok – so just after publishing chapter 6 I was asked about my “educated” guesses for who would win each academy award. So here are my thoughts:

Best Supporting Actress

It’s a list of stars – of that there is no question. All have been nominated / won Oscars before so there are no newcomers. Amy Adams is a (more recent) regular nominee (yet has never won anything) whilst Helen Hunt and Jacki Weaver (although putting in great performances) will be too far off the pace to win this time around. That leaves Sally Field and Anne Hathaway - and with odds of 1/33 Anne Hathaway is clearly the category favourite for her role in Les Miserables (she has already won the Bafta, the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award for this part). I’m not going to disagree with the odds on this one. The Oscars regularly spring surprises – but I don’t think there will be one in this category. It could however be the only major award the Les Miserables walks away with…..

Winner: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Best Supporting Actor

A very hard category to call because of the pedigree of the actors and because of the vastly different roles played. All have previously won Oscars – and all have been regular (ish) nominees throughout their careers. Robert De Niro has been deservedly nominated for his role in Silver Linings Playbook – yet I’d be very surprised if it was an award winning performance. It’s worth mentioning though that the kind of role De Niro plays in Silver Linings is not dissimilar tonally to the award won by Alan Arkin for his role in Little Miss Sunshine in 2007. The Baftas and Golden Globes crowned Christoph Waltz as their winner, whilst the Screen Actors Guild (which more often than not is a major pointer to the Oscar winner) awarded the prize to Tommy Lee Jones for his role in Lincoln – so there isn’t a clear nominee like in the supporting actress category. As you’ve probably worked out – I’m torn in this category. I want Waltz to win….however…….

Winner: Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Best Original Screenplay
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Flight (John Gatins)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

It’s very hard to look past Quentin Tarantino with his original screenplay for Django Unchained for this award. The bookies think that Django will win and Tarantino has already won the Bafta and Golden Globe in this category. And who am I to say otherwise……
As a tip though - it’s also worth keeping an eye on Mark Boal and his screenplay for Zero Dark Thirty (which won this category at the Writers Guild Awards last week).

Winner: Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Terrio won this category with Argo last week at the Writers Guild Awards whilst David O. Russell picked up this award for Silver Linings Playbook at the Baftas - so this is very much a see saw category. I might be wrong – but I can’t see the other nominees having much of an impact here – its very much going to be a fight out between the two - but I’m going to stick my neck out and say…..

Winner: Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Best Directing
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

The most interesting thing about this award is its 3 big absentees – Ben Affleck (for Argo), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) and previous winner Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty). With that taken into account – it actually becomes much harder to try and figure out the winner. It becomes even more difficult when you realise that in actual fact Affleck has won the vast majority of awards leading up to the Oscars in this category (even the Director’s Guild Award). So the winner of this category is probably likely to feel a bit awkward. Anyway – I want David O. Russell to win (for the fantastic Silver Linings Playbook) – but he won’t. Ang Lee is a good wildcard bet (and he has previously won the award) but I doubt he will walk away with the trophy this time around.

Winner: Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)

Best Actor

The bookies and most (if not all) of the award ceremonies leading up to the Oscars have Daniel Day-Lewis running away with this award for his role in Lincoln. I’m not going to go against them – but if you are a betting person it might be a shout to have a small “just in case” bet on Denzel Washington for Flight or a cheeky punt on Hugh Jackman for his role in Les Miserables.....(both can be picked up at very good odds)

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

Best Actress

Bar the best picture category – this is probably the most hotly contested award because the run up ceremonies have all pointed at different winners. The bookies favourite and Screen Actors Guild winner (as well as the Golden Globe Winner for an actress in a musical or comedy) was Jennifer Lawrence, the Bafta in this category went to Emmanuelle Riva and the Golden Globe winner was Jessica Chastain (read my thoughts on that in Chapter 4 of 10 resolutions) so who do I think will win? I’ll have an outside bet on Emmanuelle Riva whilst my vote goes to…..

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

Best Picture

Make no mistake – Argo is the front runner in this category. It might well have initially been a long shot but now nearly every form of common sense would say that Argo will walk away with the coveted award. It has won pretty much everything in the build up to the Oscars but the one thing which could suggest that the award may not be as clear cut as everyone thinks is that it is rare for a film to win best picture if the director hasn’t been nominated for best director. That therefore raises the question of alternatives. Life of Pi could be in with a shout, as could (what I secretly hope wins) Silver Linings Playbook. My money would be on Lincoln as a 2nd bet though. Never write off Spielberg (unless he is involved in Indiana Jones......). 

Winner: Argo

Remember to ask any questions you may have about life, the universe and everything else by emailing – and you can also now subscribe to 10 resolutions by email – simply fill in the big white box above the chapter. Right - I'm off to pack to go to Falmouth!.....Until next week.....

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