Ok – so just
after publishing
chapter 6 I was asked about my “educated” guesses for who would win each
academy award. So here are my thoughts:
Best Supporting
Actress
Nominees:
It’s
a list of stars – of that there is no question. All have been nominated / won
Oscars before so there are no newcomers. Amy Adams is a (more recent) regular
nominee (yet has never won anything) whilst Helen Hunt and Jacki Weaver
(although putting in great performances) will be too far off the pace to win
this time around. That leaves Sally Field and Anne Hathaway - and with odds of
1/33 Anne Hathaway is clearly the category favourite for her role in Les
Miserables (she has already won the Bafta, the Golden Globe and the Screen
Actors Guild Award for this part). I’m not going to disagree with the odds on
this one. The Oscars regularly spring surprises – but I don’t think there will
be one in this category. It could however be the only major award the Les
Miserables walks away with…..
Winner: Anne
Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
A
very hard category to call because of the pedigree of the actors and because of
the vastly different roles played. All have previously won Oscars – and all
have been regular (ish) nominees throughout their careers. Robert De Niro has
been deservedly nominated for his role in Silver Linings Playbook – yet I’d be
very surprised if it was an award winning performance. It’s worth mentioning
though that the kind of role De Niro plays in Silver Linings is not dissimilar
tonally to the award won by Alan Arkin for his role in Little Miss Sunshine in
2007. The Baftas and Golden Globes crowned Christoph Waltz as their winner,
whilst the Screen Actors Guild (which more often than not is a major pointer to
the Oscar winner) awarded the prize to Tommy Lee Jones for his role in Lincoln
Winner: Tommy
Lee Jones (Lincoln
Best Original
Screenplay
Nominees:
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Django Unchained (Quentin
Tarantino)
Flight (John Gatins)
Moonrise Kingdom (Wes
Anderson & Roman Coppola)
Zero Dark Thirty (Mark
Boal)
It’s
very hard to look past Quentin Tarantino with his original screenplay for
Django Unchained for this award. The bookies think that Django will win and Tarantino
has already won the Bafta and Golden Globe in this category. And who am I to
say otherwise……
As
a tip though - it’s also worth keeping an eye on Mark Boal and his screenplay
for Zero Dark Thirty (which won this category at the Writers Guild Awards last
week).
Winner:
Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)
Best Adapted
Screenplay
Nominees:
Argo (Chris Terrio)
Beasts of the Southern Wild
(Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (David Magee)
Lincoln (Tony Kushner)
Silver Linings Playbook
(David O. Russell)
Terrio won this
category with Argo last week at the Writers Guild Awards whilst David
O. Russell picked up this award for Silver Linings Playbook at the Baftas - so this is very much a see saw category. I
might be wrong – but I can’t see the other nominees having much of an impact
here – its very much going to be a fight out between the two - but I’m going to
stick my neck out and say…..
Winner:
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Best Directing
Nominees:
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Beasts of the Southern Wild
(Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
Lincoln (Steven
Spielberg)
Silver Linings Playbook
(David O. Russell)
The
most interesting thing about this award is its 3 big absentees – Ben Affleck
(for Argo), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) and previous winner Kathryn Bigelow
(Zero Dark Thirty). With that taken into account – it actually becomes much
harder to try and figure out the winner. It becomes even more difficult when
you realise that in actual fact Affleck has won the vast majority of awards
leading up to the Oscars in this category (even the Director’s Guild Award). So
the winner of this category is probably likely to feel a bit awkward. Anyway –
I want David O. Russell to win (for the fantastic Silver Linings Playbook) –
but he won’t. Ang Lee is a good wildcard bet (and he has previously won the
award) but I doubt he will walk away with the trophy this time around.
Winner:
Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)
Best Actor
Nominees:
The
bookies and most (if not all) of the award ceremonies leading up to the Oscars
have Daniel Day-Lewis running away with this award for his role in Lincoln
Winner:
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Best Actress
Nominees:
Bar
the best picture category – this is probably the most hotly contested award
because the run up ceremonies have all pointed at different winners. The
bookies favourite and Screen Actors Guild winner (as well as the Golden Globe
Winner for an actress in a musical or comedy) was Jennifer Lawrence, the Bafta
in this category went to Emmanuelle Riva and the Golden Globe winner was
Jessica Chastain (read my thoughts on that in Chapter 4 of 10 resolutions) so
who do I think will win? I’ll have an outside bet on Emmanuelle Riva whilst my
vote goes to…..
Winner:
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Best Picture
Nominees:
Make
no mistake – Argo is the front runner in this category. It might well have
initially been a long shot but now nearly every form of common sense would say
that Argo will walk away with the coveted award. It has won pretty much
everything in the build up to the Oscars but the one thing which could suggest that
the award may not be as clear cut as everyone thinks is that it is rare for a
film to win best picture if the director hasn’t been nominated for best
director. That therefore raises the question of alternatives. Life of Pi could
be in with a shout, as could (what I secretly hope wins) Silver Linings
Playbook. My money would be on Lincoln as a 2nd bet though. Never
write off Spielberg (unless he is involved in Indiana Jones......).
Winner: Argo
Remember to ask any questions you may have about life, the universe and everything else by emailing 10resolutionsblog@gmail.com – and you can also now subscribe to 10 resolutions by email – simply fill in the big white box above the chapter. Right - I'm off to pack to go to Falmouth!.....Until next week.....
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